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An early general election? There’s a Christmas present we should be careful about wishing for

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The Independent has run an interview today with Jeremy Corbyn, outlining the Labour leader’s strategy moving forward – including his pledge that Labour MPs would back a dissolution of Parliament and an early General Election. I was previously a real supporter of an early General Election. Ultimately, I question Theresa May’s ability to hold her own party together through the Brexit negotiations, and I also think that it would provide an opportunity for the process to be amended or slowed by the more progressive forces within our country. This said – we need to be careful what we wish for.

My partner and I were having a conversation the other day, where I was ranting on about how it would all be wonderful – we Liberal Democrats would gain seats from the Conservatives in some of our former heartlands (it wouldn’t take a miracle for seats like Bath and Yeovil in the South West and seats like Twickenham to fall our way in London, for example) and we’d be able to pull the brakes on Brexit. But there’s another more worrying possibility that I’d like to let you into.

So, it’s Friday 3rd of March and we’re all still up, having sat there throughout the night as results have poured in. Things aren’t quite as we’d hoped, and we have that nagging feeling that we had in June, and that many of us had in November when Hillary Clinton was beaten by the blonde-haired Wotsit – the feeling of the ground slipping away from underneath you, and the feeling that you don’t really know your own neighbours any more. Yes, the Liberal Democrats have gained a lot of seats, maybe fifty or sixty, and that’s a good showing. But that isn’t the concern, because this is no victory for Liberalism. In former Labour heartland seats, where industry left thirty years ago to be replaced by absolutely nothing, an angry electorate, which flexed its muscles in the European referendum has elected a rash of UKIP MPs. There aren’t hundreds, but there might be fifty or more. The seeds of their victories have been sewn over generations – not because Labour isn’t tough enough on immigration, but because Labour said that it stood for the working man but now they’re seen to stand for nobody. When voters have looked to the Parliamentary Labour Party for cues that they can be trusted, that they have even basic competence when it comes to Government, they’ve seen Shadow Ministers resigning, pitiful performances at PMQs and Jeremy Corbyn pretending not to be able to find a seat on a train when plenty of seats were available, and then squirming for what felt like days when he got found out.

In the South West, the LibDems have had a resurgence – even in seats that narrowly voted Leave, the extremist agenda forced through by Theresa May and her UKIP leaning back-benchers has worried moderate voters who want the best for their family, but who won’t want to be Turkeys voting for Christmas. This effect leaves Theresa May’s administration withered but not dead – they’re still the largest party, in a parliament where no one force holds overall control. Mrs May makes clear that given the result, her role has to be to form a coalition in the national interest. While the last coalition was formed in the hope of staving off financial ruin and providing stability, this one is cobbled together to have enough votes and support to finish the work of Brexit.

You can see, therefore, how, just as it seemed unthinkable that Trump would end up moving a few doors down at Pennsylvania Avenue – you don’t need too many leaps of faith to arrive at a position where Nigel Farage holds all the cards in a time of national crisis.

It’s often accepted that Theresa May might look to increase her majority if she went to the people today. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party provides such pathetic opposition and such weak leadership, that they look to become a rump at the next election. But, what if Mrs May is keeping her powder dry? What if her best guess suggests that in the Labour industrial heartlands, a quiet revolution is brewing, and UKIP would look to gain huge ground – something largely undetected by the polls. What if, on balance, Mrs May is attempting to carry on because she prefers the devil she knows, rather than the one that could be unleashed?

Depressing reading, eh? I don’t mean to put a downer on things at Christmas – but as we approach the turning of the year, we’d be stupid to move ahead and not learn the lessons of the past twelve months. I’m not saying that the UK is the same as the Weimar Republic – I don’t mean to harbour fear or angst. But as we move into next year, we need to work in the interests of our party, but also in the interests of our country. Everything we’ve fought for over our party’s proud history is at risk. If you think a Tory and UKIP coalition would think twice about dismantling the NHS even further, you’re mistaken. If you think they’d worry whatsoever about yanking us out of the European Convention on Human Rights – you’re wrong. And, if you think the Tories wouldn’t go straight into coalition with UKIP in a bid to stay in control and ‘mitigate’ them – you may well have another thing coming.

We might hope for an early General Election, because we can look to gain seats and build a stronger standing for ourselves, but be careful what you wish for, because things don’t always work out how you’d hoped. Unless we’re somehow in a position to build a truly national campaign, where we hold the popular centre ground, we should move ahead with caution.

Finally, a plea to Labour members. I’m not going to ask you to join the Liberal Democrats (although of course, you’d be welcomed), I’m asking you to forget the talk of a ‘progressive case for ending freedom of movement’, forget getting mugs printed with how tough you’re going to be on immigration – you’re falling into a trap that has been set by the right wing to ensnare you. Instead, go back to basics. The Labour Party was built as a progressive force in communities up and down the country – yet your by-election campaigns suggest a real divide between the party and the people they seek to represent. If the turning point election is coming, no number of billboards will make the difference. Instead, we progressives must all do the same thing – go out into our communities and win one heart and one mind at a time. The next election, whenever it occurs, will be the most important of our generation. Will we move forward, carrying those weaker than us forward too, in the firm belief that we are a nation of constituent parts that stands together, united and strong while the storm rages on? Or will we allow ourselves to falter in the face of a growing nationalism that threatens the peace and prosperity of our country and our continent?

It is the question of our time.

* Sam Phripp is a District Councillor from Frome in Somerset. He blogs at www.sosamsaid.blogspot.com


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